At the Trade Deadline, Assessing the Mets’ Myriad Needs

With only 48 hours remaining before baseball’s non-waiver trade deadline, and the Mets holding a precarious, half-game lead in the National League East, general manager Omar Minaya is examining the club’s most pressing needs and looking for potential answers to them among the players on the trading block.

Following last night’s bullpen implosion—leading to a 7-3 loss to Florida that moved the third-place Marlins to only a game behind New York—Minaya would be well-served to address his team’s relief woes first and foremost. According to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, the bullpen is indeed Minaya’s top priority.

Statistically, the Mets’ bullpen is around the league average. Their earned-run average is 3.99 (N.L. average: 3.96), they have allowed 1.33 walks and hits per innings pitched (1.38), and their on-base-plus-slugging allowed is .708 (.728).

Billy Wagner (0-1, 2.00, 26/32 saves) has been their best reliever, but he has been experiencing shoulder pain recently. He was unavailable last Tuesday when the Mets blew a three-run lead in the ninth inning against Philadelphia.

Mets manager Jerry Manuel anointed Duaner Sánchez (5-1, 3.97) his set-up man about a month ago, but Sánchez has struggled recently, allowing 20 baserunners (hits and walks) in 10.2 innings this month.

Scott Schoeneweis (1-2, 3.02) has also been effective, but he had a nine-inning scoreless streak broken last night, allowing three runs in the pivotal eighth inning.

Joe Smith (1-3, 3.56)? He has allowed four earned runs in his last two-and-two-thirds innings pitched. Pedro Feliciano (2-2, 4.10)? He has a 12.60 E.R.A. in July.

Aaron Heilman (1-4, 4.76) has fallen into some bad luck this month, posting a 5.02 E.R.A., but also striking out 17 batters in 14.1 innings. Ironically, Heilman may be the best major-league trade bait the Mets have, as a few teams still regard him as a potential starter, something the Mets do not. The Mets may look to move Heilman, and possibly Schoeneweis, for an outfielder, while making other deals to overhaul their bullpen, according to the Newark (N.J.) Star-Ledger’s Dan Graziano.

Some of the names suggested for this overhaul include: Oakland righty closer Huston Street (2-3, 4.00, 18/23 saves), Seattle lefty Arthur Rhodes (2-0, 2.53), San Francisco southpaw Jack Taschner (2-1, 2.95), and Texas lefty “Everyday” Eddie Guardado (1-2, 3.49). Guardado has been unlucky; his W.H.I.P. is only 0.98.

Minaya’s second priority is the outfield, though that will be affected by the availability of Ryan Church. Church suffered a concussion in Atlanta on May 20, and since that time, he has been shut down and re-activated twice as a result of post-concussion syndrome. The Mets have been taking it very slow with Church; he last played on July 5. Church is expected to make a few rehab starts in Port St. Lucie, Fla., over the weekend, but it’s difficult to guess how his body might react to that kind of activity.

The Mets’ outfield today consists of Carlos Beltrán (.266/.364/.460) in center, Endy Chávez (.272/.315/.329) in right, and Fernando Tatis (.322, .373, .533) in left. Tatis has been a godsend, but he has already played more games this season—55—than in any season since 2002, when he batted .228 for Montréal. His defense is suspect, too; prior to this season, he had played a total of 30 innings in the outfield in the majors.

If the Mets knew they could count on Church to be healthy and productive in right field, perhaps a platoon of Tatis and Chávez in left—particularly using Endy for late-inning defense—could suffice. But if Church is limited or unable to play, the Mets may not be able to squeeze enough production out of their existing corner outfielders.

The big names are out there: Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and the troubled Manny Ramírez. Whether the Mets have or want to part with the requisite prospects to acquire one of these players is unclear, but Church’s availability will certainly impact Minaya’s thinking. A more realistic possibility might be Seattle’s Raúl Ibáñez, who could be shopped in a package-deal with teammate Arthur Rhodes.

As for Ramírez, if Boston is really desperate to unload him, the Mets may be able to acquire him for the rest of the season while surrendering little talent in return. Perhaps a trade away from Boston and to his hometown of New York would—at least in the short-term—placate the enigmatic slugger.

The starting rotation also may be a concern for Minaya. John Maine left last night’s start with shoulder soreness in his throwing arm, and he is scheduled for an M.R.I. today. Pedro Martínez is scheduled to make his first start since July 12 on Friday, and even when healthy, he hasn’t been very effective this year.

There are certainly a lot of questions on this Mets roster—bullpen, outfield, and rotation—and Minaya will be charged with answering them over the next 48 hours. If Church and Maine are going to be available, he should make the bullpen his top priority. If not, the Mets will have to decide to what extent they want to make a run this year or hold back and protect the long-term health of the franchise.